I have been pondering the Iowa Caucus this year and what it means. For candidates it makes them look like they are doing good in the polls. In a way. it gives the winners a little bit to brag about. For Iowa voters, it gives us a chance to be in the room with the person who will be the next president, that alone is pretty awesome.
There is no other state that gets the attention that Iowa gets because of our first-in-the-nation status. It has got to be great for the Iowa economy as well. I Ramaswamy hosted a tailgate party in Iowa City at a chicken joint and provided the wings for the party. It seems like the campaigns are out to buy your vote via deals like this all the time now.
Ironically, the candidates have the idea that if they win the caucus, they will win the primary. Their claims to this effect makes me chuckle. Let's look at our history.
The following is a list of who won the caucus and how that worked out.
Caucus Winners | (D) | (R) | On the Ballot | Won the Election | |
1976 | Jimmy Carter | X | X | X | |
Gerald Ford | X | X | |||
1980 | Jimmy Carter | X | X | ||
George H.W. Bush | X | Ronald Reagan | |||
1984 | Walter Mondale | X | X | ||
Ronald Reagan | X | X | X | ||
1988 | Dick Gephardt | X | Michael Dukakis | ||
Bob Dole | X | George H.W. Bush | |||
1992 | Tom Harkin | X | Bill Clinton |
1992 | George H.W. Bush | X | X | ||
1996 | Bill Clinton | X | X | X | |
Bob Dole | X | X | |||
2000 | Al Gore | X | X | ||
George W. Bush | X | X | X | ||
2004 | John Kerry | X | X | ||
George W. Bush | X | X | X | ||
2008 | Barack Obama | X | X | X | |
Mike Huckabee | X | John McCain | |||
2012 | Barack Obama | X | X | X |
2012 | Rick Santorum | X | Mitt Romney | ||
2016 | Hillary Clinton | X | X | ||
Ted Cruz | X | Donald Trump | |||
2020 | Bernie Sanders | X | Joe Biden | ||
Donald Trump | X | X |
In 45 years and 12 elections, we chose 16 of the 24 candidates.
Of those, we chose six of the Presidents Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Three winning Democrat and three winning Republican presidential candidates.
If I were a candidate, I'd only worry if I DID win the caucus. The odds aren't in your favor. Iowa just weeds out the ones that have absolutely no chance of winning. If you love to be involved in politics, this is the state to be in. We won't guarantee you'll win, but we'll have fun trying to vet you a little bit.
Here's to another election season!
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